Saturday, April 04, 2020

Weekly Report April 04, 2020

 
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Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 04, 2020

 

This week was a down week for prices for most every grain, oilseed and protein meal. Corn prices dropped in the US by USD 5 to 6 m/t with soybeans falling by USD 9 to 11 m/t and soymeal down by USD 16 to 20 m/t. Wheat too was lower with winter wheat down by USD 5 m/t or so and US spring wheat also down by about USD 5 m/t.

 

Corn moved lower on the numbers from the USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks reports --- the big surprise for the trade was an increase in corn planting, up by about 8% over last year. However, corn stocks are lower than last year which helped keep corn prices from moving lower. USA corn is very competitive in some export markets these days which should give a push higher to US corn export sales.

 

Soybean prices were lower this week on good soybean harvests in South America – with a drop in the value of both Argentina and Brazil currency moving export prices lower in US$. Trade reports this week were saying that the market is currently a little bearish for soybean prices but that in coming weeks there could be room for soybean prices to slip by as much as USD 25 m/t.

 

Wheat seemed to be giving back a little of the recent increase in prices but there is still concern that coronavirus demand could push prices higher once again. While there does seem to be lots of wheat in the world, every wheat importing country has pushed buying higher as strategic wheat stocks are being built to higher levels – all due to coronavirus concerns. The export limits by Russia and the Ukraine could also put some upward pressure on prices in coming days. So, this week's wheat price weakness may just have been a buying opportunity.

 

 

    Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –

2 months to February 2020 – in m/t

 

Country

 

Wheat

Corn

Sorghum

Soybeans

Soymeal

Algeria

 

 

 

 

 

Bangladesh

 

 

 

223,300

 

Brazil

48,500

 

 

 

 

Burma

 

 

 

 

61,200

Cameroon

 

 

 

 

 

Canada

 

242,400

700

22,900

143,300

China

 

1,100

312,100

2,612,800

 

Colombia

129,200

1,094,400

 

82,800

241,300

Costa Rica

 

124,200

 

 

 

Djibouti

 

 

 

 

 

Dominican Rep

 

18,500

 

 

37,700

Ecuador

117,700

 

 

 

116,600

El Salvador

 

67,800

 

 

23,100

Egypt

 

 

 

569,500

 

Eritrea

 

 

 

 

 

Ethiopia

31,000

 

 

 

 

Germany

 

 

 

 

 

Guatemala

83,800

207,700

 

 

68,600

Honduras

 

117,700

 

 

49,500

Indonesia

258,500

 

 

272,800

 

Iraq

 

 

 

 

 

Israel

 

 

 

 

52,400

Italy

83,000

 

 

78,100

 

Jamaica

 

36,200

 

 

 

Japan

459,100

1,463,200

54,000

512,700

22,300

Kenya

 

 

 

 

 

Madagascar

 

 

800

 

 

Malaysia

56,900

 

 

105,100

 

Mexico

590,600

2,224,900

182,100

890,800

296,300

Morocco

 

 

 

 

79,300

Netherlands

 

 

 

666,900

 

New Zealand

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria

208,100

 

 

 

 

Nicaragua

 

50,900

 

 

 

Pakistan

 

 

 

206,700

 

Panama

 

73,000

 

 

31,200

Peru

21,900

14,600

 

27,400

105,800

Philippines

618,900

 

 

 

332,500

Portugal

 

 

 

26,500

 

Saudi Arabia

 

127,400

 

 

 

Somalia

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa

 

 

 

 

 

South Korea

191,800

139,300

200

135,000

 

Spain

 

 

 

280,400

 

Sri Lanka

 

 

 

 

37,200

Sudan

 

 

 

 

 

Taiwan

153,500

99,400

 

408,200

 

Thailand

223,700

 

 

177,900

10,400

Trinidad

 

16,300

 

 

 

Venezuela

 

 

 

 

26,500

Vietnam

 

 

 

185,000

20,700

Yemen

59,000

 

 

 

 

Zimbabwe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA G@ATS April 2020

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$12/13.00

 

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$12/13.00

 

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$32/33.00

 

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

 

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$57/58.00

 

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$39/40.00

 

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$37/38.00

 

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$39/40.00

 

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$38/39.00

 

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

 

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$20/21.00

 

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$19/20.00

 

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$56/57.00

 

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$56/57.00

 

X

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$40/41.00

 

X

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$42/43.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

 

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$41/42.00

 

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$36/37.00

 

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$19/20.00

 

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

 

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$23/24.00

 

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$19/20.00

 

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

 

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$53/54.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

 

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$29/30.00

 

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$28/29.00

 

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

 

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$46/47.00

 

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$48/49.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$46/47.00

 

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

 

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$31/32.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $2.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$47/48.00

 

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$23/23.50

Up $1.00

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$23/23.50

 

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$37/38.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

x

Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t

$40/41.00

New

X

Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

New

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

 

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$23/24.00

 

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$22/23.00

 

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$24/25.00

 

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$33/34.00

 

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$35/36.00

 

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$18/19.00

 

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$22/23.00

 

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$24/25.00

 

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$26/27.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$46/47.00

 

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Up $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

616

Up 62

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

319

Up 416

x

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

797

Up 68

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

495

Down 146

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

340

Down 61

x

 

 

 

 


 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2020/June 2020

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 240>>233

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 223/226

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 215/217

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 222/224

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 216/218

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 216/218

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 230/233

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 212/214

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 180/182

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 189/191

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 182/184

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 168>>162

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 172/175

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 168/171

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 158/161 new crop

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 183/185

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 174/177

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 184/187

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 179/182

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 128/131

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 194/197

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 367>>360

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 392>>385

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 393/396

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 344/347

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 385/388

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 337/340

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 341/343

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 328/331

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 335/338  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 388/390

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 585/595 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 209/212 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 268>>254 m/t

x

 

 

 

 

While corn prices moved lower this week, DDGS did just the opposite and took another run higher. The DDGS situation is totally supply driven, as reported previously, a drop in ethanol production in the US means a drop in DDGS supply.

 

A ton of corn can produce about 300 kg of DDGS so every ton less of corn used in ethanol production has a very, very significant effect on the supply of DDGS.

 

The US Grains Council (USGC) reported this week that a shortage of supply and difficult logistics have caused some DDGS export shipments to be pushed off for a month. The USGC also notes that interior US DDGS prices have moved higher by about USD 24 ton.

 

US corn gluten meal prices remain high as fishmeal related demand is keeping strength in the market. High container freight rates for CGM are also making CNF prices very high.

 

Corn gluten feed prices are steady and will probably slip a little lower this coming week as CGF prices follow corn prices down.

 

 

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 2 months to February 2020 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t

 

Country

Distillers

Dried Grains

DDGS

 

Corn

Gluten Meal

 

 

Corn

Gluten Feed

 

 

Australia

 

800

 

Bangladesh

9,400

5,000

 

Burma

 

400

 

Canada

70,700

7,700

 

Chile

 

42,800

 

China

21,400

 

 

Colombia

26,100

14,600

7,700

Ecuador

 

500

 

Egypt

16,700

3,800

 

El Salvador

 

1,300

 

Guatemala

 

1,900

 

Honduras

 

1,100

 

Indonesia

217,700

25,100

800

Ireland

60,800

 

27,300

Israel

63,400

 

34,000

Japan

115,600

2,100

 

Malaysia

 

9,800

 

Mexico

335,500

1,600

1,900

Morocco

28,600

 

6,800

New Zealand

42,100

 

 

Peru

 

1,500

 

Philippines

55,100

200

 

Portugal

 

 

 

South Korea

256,800

 

 

Spain

 

 

 

Taiwan

43,800

5,900

 

Thailand

133,000

4,900

1,000

Turkey

86,300

 

7,000

UK

21,500

 

7,300

Vietnam

120,800

4,000

500

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS April 2020

 

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 460/480 to Indonesia

 USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices in Asia moved higher this week as they tried to catch up to the last rally in soymeal prices – of course the soymeal rally has now reversed so we will see what happens next week.

 

Prices out of both Australia and New Zealand are reported to be steady for meat and bone meal with demand for poultry meal very good. The Jacobsen report was saying that demand for animal protein for pet food production is very strong as the coronavirus situation has caused a big jump in pet food sales.

 

In the US there has been some good demand for animal proteins --- again pushed on by pet food industry demand.

 

It is expected that pet food demand will continue to be the main factor in animal protein prices until we start to see a drop in coronavirus cases and consumers slow down in their stockpiling of pet food.

 

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – 2 months to February 2020 – major destinations – in m/t

 

Destination

Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal

 

Feather meal

 

Burma

700

 

Cambodia

 

 

Canada

8,700

100

Chile

1,900

6,300

China

33,200

600

Colombia

 

 

Dominican Rep

 

 

Ecuador

4,300

 

Guatemala

500

 

Honduras

1,300

100

Indonesia

37,600

9,300

Malaysia

2,000

 

Mexico

32,000

 

Peru

800

200

Philippines

8,500

100

Sri Lanka

200

 

Thailand

6,100

 

Vietnam

18,300

1,000

 

 

 

Total exports

156,600

17,700

@USDA GATS April 2020

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

All is very quiet in Peru with no new advanced sales to report. The talk is mainly about the effect of COVID-19 on ports and production facilities. The country lockdown in Peru could certainly have an affect on production and there is not much sense in catching fish if you can't process them.

 

The industry seems to feel that the new quota could be quite small and that fishing may be delayed until May. Of course, this is all speculation – but it seems to make sense.

 

The lockdown in Peru runs to April 13 but there is a decent chance that this could be extended.

 

Looking at China, Peru's main fishmeal export market, things are improving with demand for fishmeal up and the recovery from African Swine Fever doing quite well. There is some concern that China may have a shortage of fishmeal if things in Peru do not allow for a reasonable quota and the ability to produce and ship fishmeal. The demand is certainly there in China, but will we see the supply side in Peru being able to meet China's needs.

 

The next few weeks, perhaps months, are going to be very difficult for the fishmeal industry in Peru.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,660

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,400

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,560

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,610

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,680

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1450/1470 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1530/1550 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1580/1600 m/t

1550/1570 m/t

   67% protein 120 TVN

1630/1650 m/t

1600/1620 m/t

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1690/1710 m/t

1640/1660 m/t

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1730/1750 m/t

1730/1750 m/t

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2300/2350

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

2350/2400

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2450/2500

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2500/2600

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,660

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,400

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,560

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,610

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,680

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1450/1470 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1530/1550 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1580/1600 m/t

1550/1570 m/t

   67% protein 120 TVN

1630/1650 m/t

1600/1620 m/t

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1690/1710 m/t

1640/1660 m/t

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1730/1750 m/t

1730/1750 m/t

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2300/2350

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

2350/2400

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2450/2500

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2500/2600

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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